Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.102351 0.116873 0.132645 0.151037 0.171887 0.194781 0.221819
2026-01-18 0.083375 0.103009 0.125975 0.154785 0.189928 0.231371 0.283928
2026-01-25 0.064982 0.086378 0.113185 0.149157 0.196086 0.255157 0.335086
2026-02-01 0.050314 0.071720 0.100349 0.141299 0.198224 0.274402 0.383929
2026-02-08 0.040325 0.061439 0.091488 0.137150 0.204542 0.300066 0.445440
2026-02-15 0.032403 0.052626 0.083167 0.132334 0.209141 0.324099 0.508676
2026-02-22 0.027841 0.048022 0.080253 0.135024 0.225247 0.367293 0.606986
2026-03-01 0.022770 0.041646 0.073475 0.130466 0.229279 0.392599 0.681634
2026-03-08 0.018936 0.036633 0.068058 0.127203 0.234850 0.421144 0.765978
2026-03-15 0.015861 0.032385 0.063219 0.124084 0.240104 0.449846 0.854959
2026-03-22 0.014114 0.030311 0.061971 0.127305 0.257314 0.502050 0.993718
2026-03-29 0.012262 0.027664 0.059163 0.127027 0.267812 0.543387 1.118393
2026-04-05 0.010767 0.025535 0.057146 0.128276 0.282135 0.595316 1.274013
2026-04-12 0.009590 0.023871 0.055817 0.130779 0.299575 0.656295 1.457877
2026-04-19 0.008027 0.020984 0.051293 0.125485 0.299448 0.681191 1.570726
2026-04-26 0.006622 0.018173 0.046409 0.118467 0.294272 0.694548 1.660963
2026-05-03 0.005635 0.016201 0.043143 0.114693 0.295998 0.723524 1.791085
2026-05-10 0.004781 0.014391 0.039928 0.110439 0.295832 0.748166 1.915208
2026-05-17 0.004333 0.013609 0.039222 0.112537 0.311989 0.814144 2.149258
2026-05-24 0.003708 0.012166 0.036457 0.108600 0.311804 0.840027 2.288009
2026-05-31 0.003215 0.011006 0.034248 0.105780 0.314136 0.872667 2.449314
2026-06-07 0.002797 0.009981 0.032225 0.103105 0.316408 0.905526 2.616474
2026-06-14 0.002584 0.009581 0.031999 0.105745 0.334402 0.983381 2.917684